Lexington Stakes

I figured I would get a head start on the weekend and take a peak at the last Derby prep of the season, the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland on Saturday. I was going to do my first video blog on this race but after a trial run its clear I need to buy some extra lights, so everyone has to wait a day to see my dashing good looks. The Lexington Stakes is usually the last gasp for horses needing graded earnings or that got a late start to the Derby season, that is no different this year.

Attached is the Lexington Stakes PP from the Daily Racing Form.

http://www.drf.com/row/pps/08KEElexington.pdf

One thing I love in todays web aided handicapping is the abundance of replays available to all handicappers, and for the most part for free. All Churchill owned tracks have been added to Youtube for free and other tracks like Keeneland, California tracks (Calreplays.com) and NYRA (racereplays.com) provide sites where you can watch the races for free as well. It is one thing to see a running line and speed figure but watching the race in conjunction to those numbers is a great tool.

The Lexington is a wide open event that shows very little separation between the entries in terms of raw ability. I took a look at just about every horse and the races they come out of.

Atoned - Atoned is a late entry to this race which is never a good thing. A friend of mine always says its not wise to back horses that are in a race as a backup plan, and this clearly was. Atoned sits on the wrong side of the fence of the graded earnings for the Derby, http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44129, and this is a last ditch attempt. Atoned certainly figures in this race, he had the task of overcoming a slow pace, mid pack rally in the Illinois Derby to finish fourth. It is not a bad position to take that he was compromised a bit and is better then the running line but since he is somewhat accomplished to these other scrubs he is going to get bet. He might be favorite or second choice and with this last ditch choice to throw him in here I definitely am against him at the price.

Here is the Illinois Derby



Salute the Sarge- Here is the second of the horses who are desperate and playing catch up. Due to injury Salute the Sarge was not able to make his first start until March 29, and despite a trainer stating that he has no intention of running in the Derby he shows up here 20 days later, ya ain't buying that, they need another race. Salute the Sarge is a decent horse who battled nice horses last year as a two year old, his comeback sprinting was a nice effort and now stretches out. He has run well on polytrack so no issue there. If someone picked him on top it would be reasonable. That being said they are rushing with him, travelling across the country at what might be 3/1 in this race. I just think a horse like this with several questions should not be bet to win. I like him but would never bet him in a spot like this.

Samba Rooster - In the old days a Bob Baffert speed horse at Keeneland is a must consider proposition but given that the front end is more or less death at Keeneland I don't see anyway this horse is a factor. What is worse is he transfers from one of the more crooked trainers in my opinion in the country, Martin Wolfson to Baffert and a move up is not likely. I don't consider this horse a contender.

St. Joe - maybe the true speed horse in this race and two weeks ago was a glorified claimer until wiring an Alw race at Keeneland (much credit for that), quick turnaround and he shows up against much much better horses. This horse just has the wrong style to try to pull off the miracle and don't consider him a threat.

Racecar Rhapsody - This horse caught my eye early, he ran well on the poly in the Lane's End Stakes, seems to have the right style and is from a solid barn, and I think this is the goal of the barn and they have pointed to this spot. Check out the trip in the Turfway,



So are you less or more excited? I am less, what a perfect trip this horse had, saved every inch of ground, had the dream run at Adriano and flattened badly. Sure it was an o.k. effort but this horse is going to take some money off that running line. He can win this but without that perfect trip he finishes farther then 4 off Adriano and is 15/1 instead of the 5/1 or so he likely will be.

Felon - no shot horse coming off maiden, won't be shocked to see him scratch

Behindthebar - Slow Pletcher horse demolished a horrid field of claimers masquerading as Alw horses at Santa Anita in a slow time with a perfect trip and given the barn will get bet, I would book all that action.

Tomcito - Ah the sucker horse, there is one is every race and this is it. Runs a distant third behind Derby favourite Big Brown basically passing tired horses to finish in the money. His figure was decent but it was a nothing effort and I see zero reason to back him in this race, have no idea what he goes off at but anything less then 20/1 is an underlay, here is the Florida Derby so you can see for yourself.




Big Glen - Another horse who caught my attention as he overcame a super slow pace to win the Rushaway showing a good turn of foot, it earned a competitive figure as well compared to these other horses. Here is the race,




Sat midpack most of the race, dropped to the rail heading for home and grinded out the win. He really was at a pace disadvantage and I liked he was able to win it. Have no idea of the odds and he just might not be good enough but I think he fits and iff a big number I certainly can play him.

Riley Tucker - This is the horse I will likely bet. I review the replays to find horses who may be better then the running line and final figures, Riley Tucker is that horse. Sure he is a major disappointment this year so far but check out the last dirt race, he ran a respectable effort in the Transylvania stakes opening day at Keeneland but in the Faigrounds race two back, linked below, he was strangled off the pace by Lepereaux (god does he do that with every mount or what?) and chased a very slow pace and when he did get out another horse with more momentum was already by him and he stayed on for second. The Southwest stakes I liked as well was a strange race with a runaway leader and he put in a bid and flattened out off the layoff, it was a avg effort but not horrible. His form on paper looks pretty dismal but it is a good barn and they are not prone to throwing horses into races just to be there. Might be a big number and worth playing

http://youtube.com/watch?v=RQR88KSXfG0 can't embed these CDI videos but the link should work

Here is the Southwest


Red Sandy - ahh the Lukas last second Lexington starter, i.e. Scrimshaw, Proud Citizen...unfortunately this horse sucks and is odds on to finish last in this race, enough said.

So an interesting betting race that has no real effect on the Derby other then it might knock out another fringe horse on the earnings list. I will bet it because I think Big Glen and Riley Tucker have solid shots at big numbers.