Arkansas Derby

In recent years the Arkansas Derby arguably has been the most productive derby prep run with winners such as Smarty Jones, Lawyer Ron, Afleet Alex and Curlin all proving themselves as quality horses down the road. Unfortunately that does not appear to the be the case this year, in fact what we have is a field that most of the horses have the same look, I would compare it to looking at a bowl of Cheerios, not much difference between each one.

That being said its a pretty good betting race if you do like someone. Attached is the PP from DRF. http://www.drf.com/row/pps/08OParkansasderby.pdf

I think there is an interesting dynamic when discussing the pace. I don't think Gayego, the morning line favorite and fastest horse early the race wants to be near the lead today. Trainer Paulo Lobo was critical of his last race tatics of being to close to Bob Jack Attack (who finished second in the Santa Anita Derby last week). Z Fortune was rated last time out and ran so so but his Fairgrounds races show he has some pace and I think they take the initiative. Isabull has some pace but again I think they prefer to stalk. My Pal Charlie led in Louisiana with a pace figure of a 5k mdn claimer, that won't happen in this race. I am figured a slow to average pace.

Victory Pete, Tres Borrachos (if he wins what a name fore the Derby!: it translates to "three drunks"), Shekinah, My Pal Charlie, False With Spirit, and Jazz in the Park are non contenders in my eyes and I won't bother anyone further discussing them.

The first replay involves horses coming out of the Rebel Stakes, Kings Silver Son, Isabul, Golden Yank, and Z Fortune. The Rebel had a very solid pace, though a tad misleading as the pace setting horse was running off a bit from the rest of the pack, but it was still solid. Kings Silver Son, Isabul and Golden Yank all took advantage of some tiring front runners late to suck up, none were inspiring in their efforts at all. I would likely bet Golden Yank of the three as he is second off the layoff and a price. Z Fortune was farther back then usual, he tried to rally wide and flattened badly. Maybe this was too far but I think it was a case of that this horse wants to be closer to the pace. Here is the replay.



The second replay is of the San Felipe were Gayego who will likely be favored was beaten by once Derby prime contender Georgie Boy. Gayego sat right off Bob Black Jack and if it was not for the closer bias track I would say he lost with just about a perfect trip. He opened up and was caught late, a move all to familiar at Santa Anita this winter. I have no doubt he is the most talented horse in the field but he looks like a sprinter. His best hope is he moves up on the dirt after racing on synthetic surfaces his whole career. I think at 5/2 he is a horrible proposition, he can win but surely is not 30% or so to do so. Indian Sun ran in this race as well and had no pace to run into, but the race before he was life and death to win at 4/5 in a very weak Alw race on turf. Don't think he has any talent.



Blackberry Road comes out of the Louisiana Derby which featured a slow pace. I liked that he rallied three wide into the pace and while out finished by Pyro that is nothing to be ashamed of. I definitely would use this horse off that trip setup.




The last replay is of the Win Star Derby at the racino (part race track, part casino) that is Sunland Park. Liberty Bull ran in that event and I thought he ran pretty decent, he tracked a solid pace and made a move and drew away late. I respect the connections as well and think this horse is usable.

I am not sure I bet this race but if I do its likely I play Z Fortune to run much better near the front end as long as he is a better price then the morning line, and I think he will be. I would use Blackberry Road, Liberty Bull and Golden Yank with him in some exactas. This hits it should pay very well.

The 08' Arkansas likely won't produce a Derby winner, but I think its a challenging handicapping puzzle and if you don't like Gayego then it is a betting opportunity and that is what the game is about.