Blue Grass Preview

The polytrack revolution continues this week at one of the great race meets of the year, Keeneland Spring. The Blue Grass has always been one of the most prestigious and distinguished Derby preps on the calender but the past decade or so has been besieged with bias aided no descript winners (Sinister Minister for example). It used to be front end bias, but that was pre polytrack, now at Keeneland you better be a closer if you expect to win. Its always nice to be a handicapper and do the work to find the best horse, or the horse who offers real value, only to say well he can't win with that style on this track. I handicapped the Blue Grass like every other race I contemplate yet in the back of my mind I know I will be betting a closer, no matter what the merits of the front end horses are as they just don't win often enough at Keeneland on the polytrack.

This is my first blog where I seriously look at a race so just briefly my handicapping is primarily based on speed and pace figures with some trip handicapping mixed in. When I talk about pace in past races all my opinions are based on pace and speed figures provided a computer program produced by Pacefigures.com.

Here is the free PP from DRF.com
http://www.drf.com/row/pps/08KEEbluegrass.pdf

Blue Grass Pace

There is not a serious pace horse in this race, certainly nothing like a War Pass from last weeks Wood. I would imagine this race has a Euro turf feel with no pace on it at all and a sprint the last 3/8ths. Now that is American racing at it's finest, isn't it? So with no pace yet a track that plays to closers it is really hard to say anyone will be hurt nor helped by the likely pace scenario in this race.

Previous Preps

Cool Coal Man, Kentucky Bear, Monba and Halo Najib all ran in the Fountain Youth



Don't be fooled by the announcer and the posted fractions as they were wrong, the pace was strong enough and the race did not fall apart. Cool Coal Man road a perfect rail trip, in the clear most of the race and swung out winning like a good thing. Monba had real trouble in the first turn, now he never showed anything after the trouble which is concerning and his trainer has been firing blanks all derby prep season. Kentucky Bear was also josttled on the first turn but did no running. Halo Najib made a belated run at the leaders but never had an excuse.

Halo Najib came back and ran in the Lanes End stakes on polytrack at Turfway Park. I bet him that day and while he ran well he was demolished buy turf horse Adriano who exited the same Fountain of Youth. Medjool is in this race as well.



While Halo Najib had to wait in traffic while the winner got the jump its really meaning less, his figure would have been about the same, which is slowish and puts him behind others in this field. While a bit wide Medjool was a late suckup and saw nothing that makes me think he was better then his figure shows.

Another prep was the Gotham which Visionaire comes out of but it was in the fog and no real need to watch it.

Lousiana Derby had Pyro and Stevil



Pyro was pretty awesome, the pace was slowish, he was trapped behind horses and when got out toyed with the field. I think it was pretty much crap field so no credit for beating anyone but he does it with style, and that style was very reminiscent of the type of turf race like race we probably see on Keenelands poly in the Blue Grass.

Big Truck comes off his upset of War Pass who stopped running in the Tampa Bay Derby



Strange race on alot of levels, funny hearing the announcer saying Big Truck was dead in the water the rallied to win. I just watch Big Truck run and think he sucks, the figures back up he is not much horse.

Betting

Unfortunately I think Pyro is very tough in this spot, the field seems slow and he has proven a legit horse. Cool Coal Man is the likely other option yet coming off a perfect trip win he probably is less then the 4/1 morning line. There is no pace horse I can see stealing it, a horse like Cowboy Cal who may set the pace is running on poly for the first time and it is unlikely he can wire anything on this track. Closers like Halo Najib and Visionaire have bad posts to deal with. Visionaire, I question that in the fog figure from last race as other horses in that race ran like crap last weekend in the Wood and this horse is going to take a lot of money. I guess off the trip Monba might be worth a stab at 20/1, he ran on good against a decent field in the Cash Call last December on synthetic at Hollywood Park.

I looked at this race because it is the Blue Grass but I hate polytrack for the way it plays. This is not a race that I like as a betting opportunity. In general these preps are fun because we all love the Derby and the chase to win it, but the 3rd at Aqueduct on a Wednesday is probably is a better example of a race to bet as there are a lot less question marks.