The Higher Life is dedicated to the things that come from the heart. The blog will mostly focus on Thoroughbred Horse Racing but will also delve into other aspects that I am passionate about, such as Wine, Michigan Football, Friends and Family.
Well all the Derby Preps are run and for the next week or so were going to hear a lot of the following, "so and so worked great today". Today that horse was Denis of Cork, tomorrow it will be someone else. http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44710.
Horses that are under consideration for the Kentucky Derby are, in general, pretty solid animals and none of them work like a 16k claimer that runs at Aqueduct on a Wednesday. I can think of very few Derby week work reports that actually meant something in terms of handicapping and betting the race. The instances that the information was valuable is not the brimming excitement from a trainer, jockey or owner who desperately wants to win the Derby but exactly the opposite, the negative work. More times then not when a horse works poorly in his Derby preparations they don't run a step. I would say we hear about 19 horses who work "super" or "awesome" for the Derby and 1 who does not, give me the info on the 1 and keep your 19.
I do think this year though that the synthetic to dirt issue clouds the workout reports and we are probably going to hear about horses like Colonal John and Adriano as they prepare for the Derby that we should pay more attention to then usual. Unless one of them looks like a fish out of water on dirt then I will likely ignore these reports as well. Handicap the race based on the abundance of info we have from figures, charts and replays, there is no need to try to handicap the opinion of some guy watching the works on HRTV.
I figured I would get a head start on the weekend and take a peak at the last Derby prep of the season, the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland on Saturday. I was going to do my first video blog on this race but after a trial run its clear I need to buy some extra lights, so everyone has to wait a day to see my dashing good looks. The Lexington Stakes is usually the last gasp for horses needing graded earnings or that got a late start to the Derby season, that is no different this year.
Attached is the Lexington Stakes PP from the Daily Racing Form.
One thing I love in todays web aided handicapping is the abundance of replays available to all handicappers, and for the most part for free. All Churchill owned tracks have been added to Youtube for free and other tracks like Keeneland, California tracks (Calreplays.com) and NYRA (racereplays.com) provide sites where you can watch the races for free as well. It is one thing to see a running line and speed figure but watching the race in conjunction to those numbers is a great tool.
The Lexington is a wide open event that shows very little separation between the entries in terms of raw ability. I took a look at just about every horse and the races they come out of.
Atoned - Atoned is a late entry to this race which is never a good thing. A friend of mine always says its not wise to back horses that are in a race as a backup plan, and this clearly was. Atoned sits on the wrong side of the fence of the graded earnings for the Derby, http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44129, and this is a last ditch attempt. Atoned certainly figures in this race, he had the task of overcoming a slow pace, mid pack rally in the Illinois Derby to finish fourth. It is not a bad position to take that he was compromised a bit and is better then the running line but since he is somewhat accomplished to these other scrubs he is going to get bet. He might be favorite or second choice and with this last ditch choice to throw him in here I definitely am against him at the price.
Here is the Illinois Derby
Salute the Sarge- Here is the second of the horses who are desperate and playing catch up. Due to injury Salute the Sarge was not able to make his first start until March 29, and despite a trainer stating that he has no intention of running in the Derby he shows up here 20 days later, ya ain't buying that, they need another race. Salute the Sarge is a decent horse who battled nice horses last year as a two year old, his comeback sprinting was a nice effort and now stretches out. He has run well on polytrack so no issue there. If someone picked him on top it would be reasonable. That being said they are rushing with him, travelling across the country at what might be 3/1 in this race. I just think a horse like this with several questions should not be bet to win. I like him but would never bet him in a spot like this.
Samba Rooster - In the old days a Bob Baffert speed horse at Keeneland is a must consider proposition but given that the front end is more or less death at Keeneland I don't see anyway this horse is a factor. What is worse is he transfers from one of the more crooked trainers in my opinion in the country, Martin Wolfson to Baffert and a move up is not likely. I don't consider this horse a contender.
St. Joe - maybe the true speed horse in this race and two weeks ago was a glorified claimer until wiring an Alw race at Keeneland (much credit for that), quick turnaround and he shows up against much much better horses. This horse just has the wrong style to try to pull off the miracle and don't consider him a threat.
Racecar Rhapsody - This horse caught my eye early, he ran well on the poly in the Lane's End Stakes, seems to have the right style and is from a solid barn, and I think this is the goal of the barn and they have pointed to this spot. Check out the trip in the Turfway,
So are you less or more excited? I am less, what a perfect trip this horse had, saved every inch of ground, had the dream run at Adriano and flattened badly. Sure it was an o.k. effort but this horse is going to take some money off that running line. He can win this but without that perfect trip he finishes farther then 4 off Adriano and is 15/1 instead of the 5/1 or so he likely will be.
Felon - no shot horse coming off maiden, won't be shocked to see him scratch
Behindthebar - Slow Pletcher horse demolished a horrid field of claimers masquerading as Alw horses at Santa Anita in a slow time with a perfect trip and given the barn will get bet, I would book all that action.
Tomcito - Ah the sucker horse, there is one is every race and this is it. Runs a distant third behind Derby favourite Big Brown basically passing tired horses to finish in the money. His figure was decent but it was a nothing effort and I see zero reason to back him in this race, have no idea what he goes off at but anything less then 20/1 is an underlay, here is the Florida Derby so you can see for yourself.
Big Glen - Another horse who caught my attention as he overcame a super slow pace to win the Rushaway showing a good turn of foot, it earned a competitive figure as well compared to these other horses. Here is the race,
Sat midpack most of the race, dropped to the rail heading for home and grinded out the win. He really was at a pace disadvantage and I liked he was able to win it. Have no idea of the odds and he just might not be good enough but I think he fits and iff a big number I certainly can play him.
Riley Tucker - This is the horse I will likely bet. I review the replays to find horses who may be better then the running line and final figures, Riley Tucker is that horse. Sure he is a major disappointment this year so far but check out the last dirt race, he ran a respectable effort in the Transylvania stakes opening day at Keeneland but in the Faigrounds race two back, linked below, he was strangled off the pace by Lepereaux (god does he do that with every mount or what?) and chased a very slow pace and when he did get out another horse with more momentum was already by him and he stayed on for second. The Southwest stakes I liked as well was a strange race with a runaway leader and he put in a bid and flattened out off the layoff, it was a avg effort but not horrible. His form on paper looks pretty dismal but it is a good barn and they are not prone to throwing horses into races just to be there. Might be a big number and worth playing
Red Sandy - ahh the Lukas last second Lexington starter, i.e. Scrimshaw, Proud Citizen...unfortunately this horse sucks and is odds on to finish last in this race, enough said.
So an interesting betting race that has no real effect on the Derby other then it might knock out another fringe horse on the earnings list. I will bet it because I think Big Glen and Riley Tucker have solid shots at big numbers.
In recent years the Arkansas Derby arguably has been the most productive derby prep run with winners such as Smarty Jones, Lawyer Ron, Afleet Alex and Curlin all proving themselves as quality horses down the road. Unfortunately that does not appear to the be the case this year, in fact what we have is a field that most of the horses have the same look, I would compare it to looking at a bowl of Cheerios, not much difference between each one.
That being said its a pretty good betting race if you do like someone. Attached is the PP from DRF. http://www.drf.com/row/pps/08OParkansasderby.pdf
I think there is an interesting dynamic when discussing the pace. I don't think Gayego, the morning line favorite and fastest horse early the race wants to be near the lead today. Trainer Paulo Lobo was critical of his last race tatics of being to close to Bob Jack Attack (who finished second in the Santa Anita Derby last week). Z Fortune was rated last time out and ran so so but his Fairgrounds races show he has some pace and I think they take the initiative. Isabull has some pace but again I think they prefer to stalk. My Pal Charlie led in Louisiana with a pace figure of a 5k mdn claimer, that won't happen in this race. I am figured a slow to average pace.
Victory Pete, TresBorrachos (if he wins what a name fore the Derby!: it translates to "three drunks"), Shekinah, My Pal Charlie, False With Spirit, and Jazz in the Park are non contenders in my eyes and I won't bother anyone further discussing them.
The first replay involves horses coming out of the Rebel Stakes, Kings Silver Son, Isabul, Golden Yank, and Z Fortune. The Rebel had a very solid pace, though a tad misleading as the pace setting horse was running off a bit from the rest of the pack, but it was still solid. Kings Silver Son, Isabul and Golden Yank all took advantage of some tiring front runners late to suck up, none were inspiring in their efforts at all. I would likely bet Golden Yank of the three as he is second off the layoff and a price. Z Fortune was farther back then usual, he tried to rally wide and flattened badly. Maybe this was too far but I think it was a case of that this horse wants to be closer to the pace. Here is the replay.
The second replay is of the San Felipe were Gayego who will likely be favored was beaten by once Derby prime contender Georgie Boy. Gayego sat right off Bob Black Jack and if it was not for the closer bias track I would say he lost with just about a perfect trip. He opened up and was caught late, a move all to familiar at Santa Anita this winter. I have no doubt he is the most talented horse in the field but he looks like a sprinter. His best hope is he moves up on the dirt after racing on synthetic surfaces his whole career. I think at 5/2 he is a horrible proposition, he can win but surely is not 30% or so to do so. Indian Sun ran in this race as well and had no pace to run into, but the race before he was life and death to win at 4/5 in a very weak Alw race on turf. Don't think he has any talent.
Blackberry Road comes out of the Louisiana Derby which featured a slow pace. I liked that he rallied three wide into the pace and while out finished by Pyro that is nothing to be ashamed of. I definitely would use this horse off that trip setup.
The last replay is of the Win Star Derby at the racino (part race track, part casino) that is Sunland Park. Liberty Bull ran in that event and I thought he ran pretty decent, he tracked a solid pace and made a move and drew away late. I respect the connections as well and think this horse is usable.
I am not sure I bet this race but if I do its likely I play Z Fortune to run much better near the front end as long as he is a better price then the morning line, and I think he will be. I would use Blackberry Road, Liberty Bull and Golden Yank with him in some exactas. This hits it should pay very well.
The 08' Arkansas likely won't produce a Derby winner, but I think its a challenging handicapping puzzle and if you don't like Gayego then it is a betting opportunity and that is what the game is about.
The polytrack revolution continues this week at one of the great race meets of the year, Keeneland Spring. The Blue Grass has always been one of the most prestigious and distinguished Derby preps on the calender but the past decade or so has been besieged with bias aided no descript winners (Sinister Minister for example). It used to be front end bias, but that was pre polytrack, now at Keeneland you better be a closer if you expect to win. Its always nice to be a handicapper and do the work to find the best horse, or the horse who offers real value, only to say well he can't win with that style on this track. I handicapped the Blue Grass like every other race I contemplate yet in the back of my mind I know I will be betting a closer, no matter what the merits of the front end horses are as they just don't win often enough at Keeneland on the polytrack.
This is my first blog where I seriously look at a race so just briefly my handicapping is primarily based on speed and pace figures with some trip handicapping mixed in. When I talk about pace in past races all my opinions are based on pace and speed figures provided a computer program produced by Pacefigures.com.
There is not a serious pace horse in this race, certainly nothing like a War Pass from last weeks Wood. I would imagine this race has a Euro turf feel with no pace on it at all and a sprint the last 3/8ths. Now that is American racing at it's finest, isn't it? So with no pace yet a track that plays to closers it is really hard to say anyone will be hurt nor helped by the likely pace scenario in this race.
Previous Preps
Cool Coal Man, Kentucky Bear, Monba and Halo Najib all ran in the Fountain Youth
Don't be fooled by the announcer and the posted fractions as they were wrong, the pace was strong enough and the race did not fall apart. Cool Coal Man road a perfect rail trip, in the clear most of the race and swung out winning like a good thing. Monba had real trouble in the first turn, now he never showed anything after the trouble which is concerning and his trainer has been firing blanks all derby prep season. Kentucky Bear was also josttled on the first turn but did no running. Halo Najib made a belated run at the leaders but never had an excuse.
Halo Najib came back and ran in the Lanes End stakes on polytrack at Turfway Park. I bet him that day and while he ran well he was demolished buy turf horse Adriano who exited the same Fountain of Youth. Medjool is in this race as well.
While Halo Najib had to wait in traffic while the winner got the jump its really meaning less, his figure would have been about the same, which is slowish and puts him behind others in this field. While a bit wide Medjool was a late suckup and saw nothing that makes me think he was better then his figure shows.
Another prep was the Gotham which Visionaire comes out of but it was in the fog and no real need to watch it.
Lousiana Derby had Pyro and Stevil
Pyro was pretty awesome, the pace was slowish, he was trapped behind horses and when got out toyed with the field. I think it was pretty much crap field so no credit for beating anyone but he does it with style, and that style was very reminiscent of the type of turf race like race we probably see on Keenelands poly in the Blue Grass.
Big Truck comes off his upset of War Pass who stopped running in the Tampa Bay Derby
Strange race on alot of levels, funny hearing the announcer saying Big Truck was dead in the water the rallied to win. I just watch Big Truck run and think he sucks, the figures back up he is not much horse.
Betting
Unfortunately I think Pyro is very tough in this spot, the field seems slow and he has proven a legit horse. Cool Coal Man is the likely other option yet coming off a perfect trip win he probably is less then the 4/1 morning line. There is no pace horse I can see stealing it, a horse like Cowboy Cal who may set the pace is running on poly for the first time and it is unlikely he can wire anything on this track. Closers like Halo Najib and Visionaire have bad posts to deal with. Visionaire, I question that in the fog figure from last race as other horses in that race ran like crap last weekend in the Wood and this horse is going to take a lot of money. I guess off the trip Monba might be worth a stab at 20/1, he ran on good against a decent field in the Cash Call last December on synthetic at Hollywood Park.
I looked at this race because it is the Blue Grass but I hate polytrack for the way it plays. This is not a race that I like as a betting opportunity. In general these preps are fun because we all love the Derby and the chase to win it, but the 3rd at Aqueduct on a Wednesday is probably is a better example of a race to bet as there are a lot less question marks.
Lost in the shuffle of the all media encompessing derby preps last weekend was a performance so impressive it needs to have further discussion. The Apple Blossom at Oaklawn Park has become the spring time event for older fillies and mares and while this years field was small in numbers it contained two talented fillies, including last years Champion, Ginger Punch. The real question for handicappers though was not the known quantitiy but the lightly raced behemoth of a filly from socal, Zenyatta. Unbeaten and never really tested she had never run fast, and she likes to make a move from the back of the pack and the pace was expected to be slow. Here is the race, Ginger Punch in the black, Zenyatta in the familar colors of Jerry Moss (Giacomo fame).
The pace was moderate, 47.3 and 111.6 for 6 furlongs, at that point Zenyatta was 7.5 lengths behind, basically in about an impossible spot at Oaklawn. The move she made was breathtaking makeing up the last 2.5 furlongs in 31 seconds (the fourth quarter of the mile in just over 23!). This type of move is impressive if it was a mdn special race but this was a Grade 1 against last years champion. I have attached the Equibase Chart. http://equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/OP040508USA8.pdf
Zenyatta cost a paltry 60K because at the time no one had heard of her sibling, Balance, who would later become a multi grade 1 winning mare. Her sire Street Cry is one of the hot young and coming stallions, having already sired Derby winner Street Sense. Had she been sold after Balance's wins, she would have cost a tremendous amount of money and substantially more than the bargain price of 60K.
I believe the filly division has been blah since the great Azeri retired, good horses in the division but nothing anyone will remember but this youngster has the look, and in a division that has little talent it might be a long time until she loses.
So it is roughly 4 weeks until the greatest sporting event in America is run, the Kentucky Derby. There is no need to rehash all the usual fodder that accompanies the spectacle that is the Greatest 2 Minutes in Sport. Over the past weekend some of the traditional preps were run, the Santa Anita Derby in California, the Wood Memorial in New York, and the Illinois Derby in Chicago.
In this race 2yo champ War Pass was trying to vindicate his well earned reputation after running like a 30k claimer in the Tampa Bay Derby last month. The race really was all about this conundrum, a truly talented animal who seemed to go way off form. To make matters worse the ever controversial rabbit was entered to make sure it was a quick pace for the closers in the race. It worked, the pace was excruciatingly fast for even the greatest of horses. Watching the replay you can see War Pass was pressured every step of the way and yielded late to Tale of Ekati. Give credit to the winner but shit are you not supposed to blow by War Pass in a setup like this? The pace was much faster then the final time, not surprising as you can see they staggered home but something tells me the winner will not have an impact in Louisville. Runner up War Pass distinguished himself the best, and I suppose if he gets to set an uncontested pace in the Derby he cannot be tossed but he hardly seems like anything special. Court Vision who was a suck up third was most disappointing, Garret Gomez chose to ride this dog over Colonial John, not sure what that says other then bad decision. I believe the Beyer Figure for the race was 91, just about as bad as it looked on video. Honestly other then War Pass this edition of the Wood goes does with some other recently bad vintages (i.e. Tapit, Bob and John).
Santa Anita Derby
The synthetic revolution is here, it will ruing racing long before it saves it. The first edition of the Santa Anita Derby is the first run on Cushion Track, or at least that is what they are calling it in Socal right now. Here is the replay.
Where do you start? I bet Yankee Bravo, now what inspires more confident in a horse for Louisville but a horse who saved ever inch of ground, had a pace to chase yet flattened out at 9f like a dog? Honestly I think there is some wiseguy to this horse and this effort was as bad as you could want. Pace of this race was honest, it was fair for all and we had some pace stay on for the Place and a closer get the Win. Colonel John ran solid and finished ok but I have never thought this was a horse of quality, but this is a shit stack derby field and he actually fits. Bob Blackjack Attack who ran for second is ok, he is a talented sprinter. He will not be found in Louisville. El Gato Malo was the chalk, in the yellow with black star, had zero excuse and clearly looks like a recipient of a perfect trip win two back and not much more. No horse had an excuse and I don't see any reason to move a horse up in Ky.
Illinois Derby
This was the simpliest race of the weekend for the Derby.
In this race if you get the lead, or right off it you win and get bet ridiculously in the Derby. The winner is a dog race horse who rode the golden rail to win and if he is less then 50/1 at CD then he is an underlay. I guess the horses to look at are Atoned and Dennis of Cork who had to try and rally into the setup but it would be more inspiring if one of them had been a bit stronger. Still though at monster prices I could see using them underneath in the Derby. You all know you want to pull down that 850k super in that race (don't lose the ticket like this moron) http://www.usatoday.com/sports/horses/triple/derby/2005-05-09-superfecta-ticket_x.htm
So three races, no one really impressed, no real trip horses to get excited about. I think in the grand history of these races this was the blah effort of all time for a collective group.
Next week Arkansas Derby and the Blue Grass Stakes, glories last shot?
My first post of the new The Higher Life blog! Since this is my first blog post everyone is new so just a quick intro, I love horse racing! It has been a passion of mine since I was 18, so for 16 years I have followed it closer then anyone would reasonably expect. In this blog I hope to add content that provides my insight into the sport. Nothing will be sugar coated or dumbed down and will not be short on opinion, wrong or not. This will be a video blog for the most part a I will add replays and analysis for major races around the country. I will try to provide insight into handicapping techniques that have proven successful to me over the years. I sell nothing, offer no product and just hope to entertain my friends and anyone else who happens to find a minute or two to read or listen to the blog. I will also blog about my other passions, Wine, which I am just gravitating to and Michigan football which I was indoctrinated at birth, or so I have been told.
